Average paper trades opened / day
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Primary strategy, completed UTC days only. Counts new paper trades, excluding settlement entries.
Waiting for completed-day counts…Prediction Market Intelligence
Independent probability analytics for short-duration crypto prediction markets.
Compare model estimates with market-implied probabilities for five-minute BTC, ETH, SOL and XRP Up/Down markets. OUTCORA uses real-time Binance and Polymarket data, with liquidity, timing and data-quality checks. We record paper trades—simulated research positions—and evaluate them against official market outcomes. The market data is real; no live orders are placed.
Independent researchNo trade executionNo operator referrals
PUBLIC REFERENCE DATA
Market context, at a glance.
Track BTC, ETH, SOL and XRP reference prices from Binance alongside the OUTCORA research view. Public website data may be delayed.
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H —
L —
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Source Binance public market data
UTC / local browser time
RESEARCH SCOPE
Which prediction markets does OUTCORA cover?
OUTCORA currently analyzes five-minute Up/Down prediction markets on Polymarket for Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL) and XRP.
- Markets
- Short-duration crypto Up/Down event markets
- Assets
- BTC, ETH, SOL and XRP
- Reference prices
- Binance Spot BTCUSDT, ETHUSDT, SOLUSDT and XRPUSDT
Current market coverage. Venue: Polymarket. Markets: five-minute crypto Up/Down. Assets: BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP. Reference prices: Binance Spot. Settlement: the venue’s official outcome, determined from Chainlink asset/USD 60-second TWAP prices. Coverage may change; this statement is updated when it does.
OUTCORA provides independent research only. We do not provide access to any trading venue. Participation in any market referenced by our research is subject to the relevant venue’s own rules and applicable law.
RESEARCH ACTIVITY
Forward research in numbers.
Follow OUTCORA’s primary forward-testing record: market observations, qualified research signals and settled paper trades. All trading results are simulated. The ledger uses reference units and does not represent customer transactions or returns.
Continuously updated data
Analysis cycles
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Market observations evaluated
Research selectivity
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Share of analyses that pass the research checks
Qualified research signals
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Signals that passed the research checks
Settled paper trades
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Simulated trades evaluated against the official market outcome
Paper trade win rate
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Share of settled paper trades with a positive net result after modelled costs
Paper trading performance ratio
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Net settled value change ÷ gross settled turnover (stake + modelled costs)
Checking settlement history…Reference-value ratio
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Net settled value change ÷ fixed 100-unit starting reference
Uncapped simulation; overlapping positions are not limited by available capitalHypothetical performance disclosure
These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.
Assumptions behind the figures above
- Fills
- Each paper trade uses the venue's quoted ask at the observation timestamp. The simulation assumes a full fill at that price and does not model market impact.
- Fees
- The venue's taker-fee schedule is applied per share and charged on entry. No exit fee is applied.
- Slippage
- No slippage is deducted from the recorded result. A spread-based allowance is used only to decide whether a paper trade qualifies.
- Sizing
- A reference stake against a fixed 100-unit starting value. The ledger is uncapped and not capital-constrained.
- Settlement
- Paper trades are settled using the venue's official outcome, rather than our reference-price observation.
- Concurrency
- Paper positions may overlap. The simulation does not limit the total reference stake committed at any one time.
A change in any of these assumptions changes the figures above. The full statement is in section 3.8 of our Terms of Use.
Settlement methodology
OUTCORA settles paper trades according to the venue’s official settlement outcome—the outcome token the venue marks as the winner. For the currently covered short-duration crypto Up/Down markets, official settlement is based on Chainlink asset/USD 60-second TWAP prices: Up is settled as the winner when the final TWAP is equal to or above the opening TWAP; otherwise, Down is settled as the winner. Binance prices are used only for signal generation and reference analytics; they do not set the settlement price or affect the official settlement outcome. In the OUTCORA paper ledger, the winning side is valued at 1.00u and the losing side at 0.00u.
Research
Understand the probabilities behind each market.
A probability on its own rarely tells the whole story. OUTCORA places model estimates alongside publicly observed market figures for five-minute crypto Up/Down markets, adding liquidity, timing and data-quality context.
01
Compare probabilities
Compare OUTCORA’s model estimate with the observed market probability for the same event and timestamp.
02
Add market context
Spread, depth, time remaining and data completeness help explain what sits behind the headline number.
03
Check the timestamp
Every research note keeps the observation time visible, so you know when the underlying data was measured.
How it works
How the research works.
The workflow is designed to be repeatable: collect the data, clean it, evaluate it and publish the result with the relevant context.
01
Collect
Bring together public prediction-market and reference-market data.
02
Clean
Align timestamps and comparable fields so the data can be read consistently.
03
Evaluate
Run the analytical model and data-quality checks.
04
Publish
Share a concise research note with the observation time and context attached.
Your research access
What OUTCORA offers
Independent statistical research for short-duration crypto prediction markets. Compare model and market probabilities, review the context and follow a timestamped paper trading record.
Probability comparisons
Read model estimates alongside publicly observed market-implied probabilities.
Market context
Review timing, liquidity and data-quality information alongside the headline figures.
Traceable research
Review historical observations, supporting data and simulated paper trading results.
Estimates are uncertain and may be incorrect. A difference between model and market probabilities does not by itself establish a profitable opportunity. OUTCORA does not execute transactions or hold customer trading capital.
Research packages
Choose how to follow the research.
Compare monthly packages and create your account. Paid subscriptions will open after Whop approval.
OUTCORA Terminal
Explore real-time research in the OUTCORA customer terminal.
- Choose 1 or 2 research strategies
- Real-time probability observations and paper trading updates, with timestamps
- Choose coverage for 1, 2 or all 4 assets: BTC, ETH, SOL and XRP
- Analysis views, filters and paper trade history
- Installable web app on supported devices
- Trading Calendar and drawdown charts for the paper trading record
$59 USD / month + applicable taxes
Sign up for TerminalExplore the terminal| Strategies | Assets | USD / month |
|---|---|---|
| 1 strategy | 1 | $59 |
| 1 strategy | 2 | $89 |
| 1 strategy | All 4 | $119 |
| 2 strategies | 1 | $89 |
| 2 strategies | 2 | $139 |
| 2 strategies | All 4 | $189 |
OUTCORA Telegram
Receive real-time OUTCORA research messages in Telegram.
- Choose 1 or 2 research strategies
- Real-time probability observations and paper trading updates, with timestamps
- Choose coverage for 1, 2 or all 4 assets: BTC, ETH, SOL and XRP
- Research messages delivered in Telegram
- Two daily research report messages: opening and closing summaries
$39 USD / month + applicable taxes
Sign up for TelegramSee message examples| Strategies | Assets | USD / month |
|---|---|---|
| 1 strategy | 1 | $39 |
| 1 strategy | 2 | $69 |
| 1 strategy | All 4 | $99 |
| 2 strategies | 1 | $69 |
| 2 strategies | 2 | $119 |
| 2 strategies | All 4 | $169 |
Terminal and Telegram are separate subscriptions. Each package includes your chosen number of strategies and assets. The customer portal currently supports V071 Control and V072 Risk-Managed. Choose your specific strategies and assets before payment once checkout opens. Creating an account does not activate paid access or start a subscription.
Inside the terminal
See the information in context.
Historical screenshots captured on 4–5 October 2026. Personal account details have been removed. Select an image to inspect it at full size.
Historical interface example · 4 Oct 2026
Research access and delivery settings
The demonstration account shows two selectable research strategies, installation controls and delivery settings. Telegram message delivery requires the separate Telegram subscription.
View full screenshotHistorical interface example · 4 Oct 2026
Reference-market context
Inspect the Binance reference chart alongside research. Reference prices do not determine the venue’s official settlement outcome.
View full screenshotHistorical interface example · 5 Oct 2026
Explore the paper trade history
Filter the history by asset and inspect individual paper trades. All displayed trading results are simulated.
View full screenshotHistorical interface example · 4 Oct 2026
Trading Calendar — daily research records
Review paper trading results by completed UTC day, including positive and negative outcomes. The calendar records past simulations; it does not recommend when to trade.
View full screenshotHistorical interface example · 4 Oct 2026
Drawdown — declines from the research ledger peak
See how far the simulated ledger fell from its previous peak. Values are reference units, not customer losses. Because the ledger is uncapped, relative drawdown can exceed 100%. Historical drawdown does not set a limit on future risk.
View full screenshotInspect two settled paper trades
Historical interface example · 4 Oct 2026
A losing paper trade
Review timestamps, probability estimates and supporting data. Both examples are historical simulated trades.
View full screenshotHistorical interface example · 4 Oct 2026
A winning paper trade
Review timestamps, probability estimates and supporting data. Both examples are historical simulated trades.
View full screenshotAnatomy of a Research Message.
What a research message shows.
These historical messages show how OUTCORA presents probability estimates, market context and timestamps. They provide research information, not trade instructions or financial advice.
Historical interface example · 7 Oct 2026
A probability observation
The example displays direction, model and market probabilities, divergence, context and an observation timestamp. Estimates can be wrong.
View full screenshotHistorical interface example · 4 Oct 2026
Daily closing report
The report summarizes paper trading outcomes and simulated ledger changes for the stated period, including both positive and negative results.
View full screenshotQuestions about research access
Does Terminal include the Telegram subscription?
They are separate subscriptions. A Telegram connection shown in the demonstration account does not mean Telegram delivery is included in the Terminal package.
Are the displayed results customer returns?
No. They are simulated paper trading results. OUTCORA does not execute customer trades, and ledger units are not customer money.
When will the packages be available?
Paid subscriptions will open after Whop approval. You can compare packages and create an OUTCORA account now. Creating an account does not activate paid access or start a subscription.
Our boundaries
What we do. And what we don’t.
OUTCORA uses real-time Binance cryptocurrency prices together with real-time event-market prices and market information as inputs to its analyses. These inputs are evaluated continuously to produce probability forecasts in real time. Recorded paper trades are evaluated against the venue’s official settlement outcome.
What we do
+Analyze real-time Binance cryptocurrency prices.
+Analyze real-time event-market prices and market information.
+Produce probability forecasts continuously as market conditions change.
+Close and evaluate recorded cases against the venue’s official settlement outcome.
What we don’t
—No individualized investment recommendations or financial advice.
—We do not provide betting tips, instructions for placing bets, or encouragement to bet.
—No acceptance, custody or handling of user funds.
—No placing trades, bets, orders or transactions for users.
—No brokerage, operator intermediation or routing to gambling or investment operators.
—No guaranteed outcomes, profit claims or performance promises.
Straight answers
Questions about OUTCORA.
How the research works, what the figures mean and what the service includes.
What is OUTCORA?
OUTCORA is an independent analytics and research service for short-duration crypto prediction markets. It currently covers five-minute BTC, ETH, SOL and XRP Up/Down markets on Polymarket. It compares model estimates with market-implied probabilities, adds liquidity and timing context, and publishes a timestamped forward-testing record. It does not execute customer trades or hold customer trading funds.
How does OUTCORA analyze five-minute crypto prediction markets?
OUTCORA compares model estimates with observed market-implied probabilities for five-minute BTC, ETH, SOL and XRP Up/Down markets. It checks liquidity, timing and data quality, then records timestamped research. Binance Spot prices are reference inputs for the analysis. Paper trades are simulated positions evaluated against the venue’s official settlement outcome.
What does paper trading mean at OUTCORA?
A paper trade is a simulated research position. OUTCORA records a hypothetical entry based on market data observed in real time and evaluates the result after official settlement. No real order is placed. Results depend on the stated assumptions for fills, fees, slippage, sizing and overlapping positions. Learn how to read the results.
Why does OUTCORA use paper trades instead of live trades?
OUTCORA is based in Hungary, where access to Polymarket’s trading services is restricted under current local law. We therefore evaluate our research with paper trades. Our research engine processes real-time Binance and Polymarket market data, while entries, fills and ledger results are simulated. No live orders are placed.
Is the market data real-time or simulated?
The research engine uses real-time market data from Binance and Polymarket. “Paper” refers to the simulated trades and ledger, not the market inputs. Public website quotes may refresh less frequently or be delayed; historical screenshots and illustrative examples are labelled separately.
Does OUTCORA offer a paper trading practice account?
OUTCORA publishes a model-driven paper trading record for research. The public site does not offer a practice brokerage account or a tool for placing virtual orders.
Are the Research Activity figures backtest results?
No. The primary strategy has recorded observations from live public reference and prediction-market data since 4 August 2026. Each observation is timestamped and retained in the research ledger. Paper trades are evaluated after official settlement. The record is forward-tested, but all trading results are simulated.
Is OUTCORA investment advice?
No. OUTCORA publishes general research and market information. It does not provide individualized investment recommendations.
Does OUTCORA provide betting advice?
No. OUTCORA does not recommend wagers, tell users what to do, or encourage gambling activity.
Does OUTCORA hold trading funds or execute trades?
No. OUTCORA does not accept or hold customer trading funds, or place trades, bets or orders. Any subscription fee pays for research access, not transaction execution or funds management.
Does OUTCORA direct users to operators?
No. OUTCORA does not act as a broker or intermediary and does not send users to gambling operators, investment firms or transaction venues.
What is published on Telegram?
The Telegram channel contains concise, timestamped research notes, probability comparisons, market context and system updates.
How current is OUTCORA market data?
Each research note keeps its observation time visible. Public website quotes may be delayed, and the data status is shown where relevant.
How does OUTCORA turn market data into research?
OUTCORA collects public reference and prediction-market data, aligns the comparable fields, applies analytical and data-quality checks, then publishes a timestamped research note with context.
How are OUTCORA paper trades settled?
OUTCORA settles paper trades according to the venue’s official settlement outcome. For the currently covered short-duration crypto Up/Down markets, official settlement is based on Chainlink asset/USD 60-second TWAP prices: Up is settled as the winner when the final TWAP is equal to or above the opening TWAP; otherwise, Down is settled as the winner. Binance prices are used only for signal generation and reference analytics; they do not set the settlement price or affect the official settlement outcome. In the paper ledger, the winning side is valued at 1.00u and the losing side at 0.00u.
Research access
Research, without the noise.
Compare research packages, choose your coverage and create your OUTCORA account.